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NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at how the latest GDP data has shifted the expectations of where the economy is headed. Now, the economy will need some type of event (see: bubble popping) for rate cuts to become an option anytime soon, Miskin said. Energy price shocks could bring the world economy to a "vulnerable moment," chief economist Indermit Gill warned.
Persons: , TikTok, they're, you'd, Jia Feng, It'll, Insider's Madison Hoff, It's, Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, BI's Filip De Mott, Jamie Dimon, Matt Miskin, Miskin, Mark Zuckerberg, C, Cox, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Goldman Sachs, Guess what's, Indermit Gill, Alphabet's, Redmond, Tyler Le, Doug McMillon, execs, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Reserve, stagflation, JPMorgan, Wall Street, John Hancock Investment Management, Galatioto Sports Partners, Bank, Google, Big Tech, Microsoft, Health, Linkedin, YouTube, ExxonMobil Locations: Chevron, New York, London
Some members of Trump's team want to restructure the Federal Reserve, the WSJ reported. That could include allowing the president to have a direct say on interest rate decisions. Trump has previously been critical of Powell's handling of interest rates during the pandemic. To help the Fed achieve its 2% inflation target, the Federal Open Market Committee has hiked interest rates 11 consecutive times since March 2022. Advertisement"I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Donald Trump, Trump, President Trump, Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Powell, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Joe Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Biden Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Street, Trump, Management, Federal, Fed, Fox News, Republican, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, Biden, GOP Locations: New York
On top of that, the latest U.S. jobs market scorecard will be released along with more mega-cap earnings. This week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.7% for the first time since November. That's down sharply from the six or seven rate cuts investors were anticipating coming into the year. April jobs Investors will also get an update on the labor picture next week, with the release of the April nonfarm payrolls report set for Friday. Corporate earnings season will also ramp up in the week ahead with a slew of consumer-facing companies set to report.
Persons: Stocks, Powell, David Alcaly, Jerome Powell's, we've, they're, Brian Nick, Matt Stucky, it's, Stucky, Dow Jones, Nick, Archer, Eli Lilly, Kraft, Estee, Ingersoll Rand, Stanley Black, Decker, Hershey Organizations: Nasdaq, Google, Microsoft, Treasury, Lazard Asset Management, Macro, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Apple, Micro Computer, Dallas Fed, Paramount, ON Semiconductor, Chicago PMI, Prudential Financial, Devices, Storage, Diamondback Energy, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Daniels, Midland, Molson Coors Beverage, Marathon Petroleum, GE Healthcare Technologies, PayPal, ADP, P Global, Manufacturing, Oil, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Etsy, eBay, Qualcomm, MetLife, First, Devon Energy, Cruise Line Holdings, Brands, Marriott International, Kraft Heinz, Pfizer, Companies, CVS Health, Generac, Mastercard, Labor, Nation Entertainment, Booking Holdings, Natural Resources, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, EOG, Coterra Energy, Dominion Energy, Howmet Aerospace, ConocoPhillips, Moderna, PMI, Services PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago, McDonald's, Albemarle, EOG Resources
Allies of former president Trump are drafting plans to chip away at the independence of the Fed, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump has not publicly acknowledged the plan, but sources said it has his blessing. The plan also suggests Trump could fire Jerome Powell before his term ends in 2026. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Trump, Jerome Powell, , Donald Trump's Organizations: Fed, Street Journal, Service, Republican, Federal Reserve, Street, Business
Former US President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media at Manhattan criminal court in New York, US, on Thursday, April 25, 2024. The plans, which the Journal report described as highly secretive, are part of a 10-page document that suggests Trump — if elected — would be consulted on interest rate decisions. Along with those proposals, the draft contends that Trump could remove current Fed Chair Jerome Powell from office and require that Fed policy be aligned with the administration's goals. While in office, Trump harshly criticized Powell and his fellow central bankers as they were raising interest rates and reportedly considered ousting him. Trump campaign officials told the Journal that the draft proposals shouldn't be considered "official."
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Wall, Treasury Department Locations: Manhattan, New York
In this article JPY= Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTThe Japan flag is juxtaposed against a Japanese yen bank note. Javier Ghersi | Moment | Getty ImagesThe yen slipped past 155 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, touching a new 34-year low against continued strength in the greenback. The weakness comes as the Bank of Japan is due to release its monetary policy decision Friday and in spite of verbal warnings from Japanese authorities. Some market watchers had speculated that the 155 level would prompt intervention after the currency languished at multi-decade lows for a month. The yen has weakened 4.2% since the BOJ's March meeting, worrying Japanese authorities and investors.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, Shusuke Yamada, Jerome Powell, Appio Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, BofA Securities, Federal, First Eagle Investments, CNBC, Korean Locations: Japan, South Korea
Rising interest rates crushed technology valuations and had a chilling effect on Silicon Valley. Stripe had to take a major haircut along with the rest of the industry as soaring inflation and rising interest rates, starting in 2022, pushed investors out of the riskiest assets, lifted borrowing costs and and forced startups to tighten their belts. "Valuations are a product of interest rates," Collison said. While many tech companies took a hit in 2022 and 2023, Collison said the rising interest rate environment succeeded in flushing out the "wackiest" startup ideas, leaving the best ones to get funded. He pointed to an "overfunding" of marginally good ideas, and "zombie companies" taking too long to go bust.
Persons: John Collison, Collison, Patrick, Elon, We're, Jerome Powell Organizations: CNBC, SpaceX, Wall Street Journal, Federal Locations: Silicon Valley
New York CNN —JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is worried about the future of the free world. “The geopolitical situation is probably the most complicated and dangerous since World War II,” Dimon said during a talk at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday. “The world order that formed after WWII, Bretton Woods, WTO [the World Trade Organization], and the UN is kind of being challenged,” he said. This is not the first time Dimon has warned that the world is on the brink of a massive realignment. The country’s national debt is now over $34.5 trillion, or about $103,000 for every American.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Dimon, Bretton, , That’s, , Jerome Powell, Niall Ferguson, Chris Isidore, Tesla, Elon Musk, Jeanne Sahadi, Joe Biden, “ won’t Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, JPMorgan, Economic, of New, World Trade Organization, UN, AAA, NATO, Atlantic Treaty Organization, Federal, Federal Trade Commission, FTC, of Commerce Locations: New York, of New York, Ukraine, NATO, Israel, US, China, Bretton Woods, WTO, Russia
So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, , Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors looked to economic data in the week ahead that could provide fresh hints about the state of the economy and outlook for interest rates. Investors awaited fresh economic data as uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy persisted. Several key data points are slated for the week, including the personal consumption expenditures price index for March, which is due Friday. The PCE is the Fed's favored inflation gauge and could inform policymakers' thinking about what could lie ahead for interest rate cuts ahead of the next Fed policy meeting on April 30-May 1. Durable goods orders and a reading of the gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2024 are among the other key data points due throughout the week.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve, PCE, Fed Locations: U.S
Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March. Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections. A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout. Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.
Persons: Warren Pies, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon
Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.
Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas
The Nasdaq sank 2% on Friday as Netflix dropped nearly 11% post-earnings and Club stock Nvidia fell 10%, entering bear market territory but still up more than 50% in 2024. Following a much stronger-than-expected March retail sales report last month, fresh economic data and six Club stock earnings will take center stage in the week ahead. While lower rates may help stock multiples, that is not a sustainable path to higher equity prices over time. Earnings : The latest quarterly reporting season is starting to ramp into high gear with six Club names set to report next week. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, Jim Cramer, Mark, Meta, Bing, Ford, Vimal, Lockheed Martin, Clark, Philip Morris, Sherwin, Williams, Baker Hughes, Lam, Northrop, Dr Pepper, CARR, Edwards Lifesciences, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael M Organizations: Nasdaq, Netflix, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Federal, Fed, Hamas, Gross, Google, Reality Labs, General Motors, Honeywell, Microsoft, Verizon Communications, Albertsons Companies, SAP, Cadence Design Systems, United Parcel Service, General Electric, GE, PepsiCo, Lockheed, Spotify Technology, RTX Corporation, JetBlue Airways, Halliburton, HAL, Philip Morris International, Quest Diagnostics, Texas Instruments, Seagate Technology, Mattel, Veralto Corporation, Boeing, General Dynamics, Boston, Hilton, Fisher, Otis Worldwide, IBM, Grill, Viking Therapeutics, Lam Research, Whirlpool, WM, Honeywell International, Royal Caribbean Cruises, American Airlines, Altria, Newmont, Caterpillar, Southwest Airlines, Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca, Mobileye, Northrop Grumman, CNBC, Comcast, Merck, Dow Inc, Carrier Global, Union Pacific, Intel, Western, Mobile, L3Harris Technologies, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Palmolive, HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Newell Brands, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: Israel, Iran, Ukraine, destocking, China, Cleveland, Freeport, McMoRan, Kimberly, Masco, Bristol, New York City
The ECB opted to hold rates steady in April and next meets to vote on monetary policy on June 6. Christine Lagarde, president of the ECBThe ECB's figurehead delivered a firm message that reflected her statements in recent press conferences: markets should expect an interest rate cut soon, barring major surprises. watch nowGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of IrelandMakhlouf said the most recent data sets had shifted his view on rates. "We don't follow the Fed... and now the ECB will be the central bank to be followed," Šimkus said. One could have cut rates way back in March or even April," he continued, adding that he hoped a majority of Governing Council members would back a June cut.
Persons: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Galhau, Villeroy, Karen Tso, Joachim Nagel, Germany's, Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Centeno, Gabriel Makhlouf, Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf, we've, Makhlouf, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Boris Vujčić, Jerome Powell, Vujčić, Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuania Šimkus, Šimkus, Edward Scicluna, Central Bank of Malta Scicluna, Kazāks, Bank of Latvia Kazāks, Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: Afp, Getty, International, European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Bank of France, Council, Austrian Central Bank One, Bank of Portugal, Central Bank of Ireland, National Bank of, Croatian National Bank, Federal, U.S, Bank of Lithuania, Central Bank of, Governing, Bank of Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, New York, ECB's, National Bank of Belgium, U.S, Europe, Central Bank of Malta, Bank of Latvia, Bank of Finland
Israel's strike on Iran caused oil prices to spike, sparking fears of rising inflation. But US inflation is more impacted by strong domestic demand than by oil prices, an economist told Bloomberg TV. Oil prices gained as much as 4% following reports of the attack before later subsiding. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that's a robust economy," Chaar told Bloomberg. "I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy," Chaar said.
Persons: , Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier, Jerome Powell, Chaar Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed, Bloomberg TV, Federal, Services, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Iran, Israel, , Swiss, America
Aussie, New Zealand dollars tumble on risk-off moves; yen rises
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar tumbled 0.8% to $0.6370, and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.63% to $0.5864. ABC News reported late on Thursday that Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, citing a U.S. official. The shift in rate expectations has come on the back of a slew of resilient U.S. economic data that has repeatedly surpassed expectations, alongside still-sticky inflationary pressures. "Although policy easing may arrive a bit later than previously expected, we still believe the FOMC will start cutting rates before the year is out," said economists at Wells Fargo. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback rose 0.1% to 106.28, hovering near a more than five-month high of 106.51.
Persons: Carol Kong, I'm, Kazuo Ueda, it'll, CBA's, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, Hamas, U.S ., U.S, New Zealand, ABC News, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New Zealand, Iran, United States, Japan, South Korea, U.S, CBA's Kong, Wells Fargo
The balanced portfolio – which typically allocates 60% of assets toward stocks and 40% to fixed income –could use a rethink in today's higher rate environment, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. "For 30 years, fixed income was a hedge," said Rieder, the asset manager's global chief investment officer of fixed income, in a phone call with CNBC. A 60/30/10 split Rather than a 60/40 split toward equities and fixed income, Rieder said he would consider a 60/30/10 allocation if he had to build a balanced portfolio. That is, he'd maintain a 60% allocation toward stocks, but keep 30% of the portfolio in "higher income, shorter duration" assets. In addition to AAA-rated CLOs, Rieder also likes European investment-grade credit as a U.S. dollar investor.
Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, Rieder, Jared Woodard Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, AAA, Bank of, CLOs Locations: Central
Investors had hoped that corporate earnings would help revive the stalled rally, but a strong start to the season hasn’t been enough to excite investors. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.10% in the week ending April 18, up from 6.88% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. Mortgage rates are climbing based on expectations that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and persistently hot inflation readings are keeping the Fed on hold. If inflation stalls any further, or even worsens, mortgage rates could climb higher this year.
Persons: , hasn’t, Jerome Powell, , , Michael Landsberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Israel, Brent, Bryan Mena, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Read, Anna Cooban, Tim Cook, Pham Minh Chinh, Cook, Apple “ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Data, Employers, Fed, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Investors, CNN, Federal, China Apple, Vietnamese, Apple Locations: New York, East, Iran, Israel, Syria, Vietnam, China, Hanoi, Beijing
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9622% after falling by more than two basis points. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors considered the latest economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and considered what this could mean for monetary policy. Investors digested the latest economic data and remarks from policymakers as they considered the outlook for interest rates. Fed officials have in recent days and weeks indicated that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts may not come until the end of the year, and that he was "comfortable being patient," while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested rate cuts may not begin until 2025.
Persons: John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis, Investors, NBC News Locations: Philadelphia, Israel
An employee holds one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices climbed on Thursday, as risks of a widening Middle East conflict raised bullion's safe-haven appeal, overshadowing pressures from higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,374.97 per ounce, as of 0429 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,431.29 last Friday. Although, "U.S. interest rates remaining higher for a longer may be adding some pressure to the ongoing boost for gold ... Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Benjamin Netanyahu, Wong, Jerome Powell, Mario Centeno Organizations: Co, Asia Pacific Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, OANDA, Israel, Iran
However, he stressed that it's still too early for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates. "So, do we finally have the beginning of the long-awaited slowdown with Prologis and J.B. Hunt? However, he did acknowledge that companies operating in economically sensitive industries such as J.B. Hunt and Prologis, in trucking and warehousing, respectively, did show less-than-ideal earnings results. Before a turn in trucking, there'll be cuts in trucking rates." Prologis and J.B. Hunt did not immediately respond to request for comment.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Hunt, Cramer, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed
Read previewFederal Reserve officials heaped more doubt on the timing of rate cuts this year, echoing Chair Jerome Powell in stating that the path to 2% inflation looks uncertain. The Fed has projected three rate cuts to come by the end of 2024. Fed Chair Powell suggested earlier in the week that rate cuts could be delayed, causing stocks to slide. Inflation risks haven't been lost on investors, who have been steadily dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts over the last few months. Markets are now expecting just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from six cuts that were anticipated at the start of 2024.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, John Williams, It's, Williams, Powell, haven't Organizations: Service, Cleveland Fed, Business, York Fed
New York CNN —Despite overcoming a crisis in 2023, the pain isn’t over for America’s regional banks. Shares of New York Community Bank have tumbled 71%, Bank OZK shares have slid 16% and Webster Financial shares have lost 11%. Regional banks reported wide losses on their profits during the first quarter. PNC projects that its net interest income will fall between 4% to 5% in 2024 from last year. “I’m worried about a handful of [regional banks],” Bair told CNBC on Tuesday.
Persons: that’s, Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Sheila Bair, “ I’m, ” Bair, ” Tesla, Tesla, Elon Musk, Chris Isidore, Musk, Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick, Read, Samantha Delouya, , Maximilian Kotz, Leonie Wenz, Noah Diffenbaugh Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Regional Banking, New York Community Bank, Bank OZK, Webster Financial, PNC Financial, T Bank, US Bancorp, Citizens, PNC, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Federal Reserve, Wilson Center, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, CNBC, Tesla, Securities and Exchange Commission, United Nations, Potsdam, Climate, CNN, Stanford University Locations: New York, Delaware, ” Delaware
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over one basis point to 4.5690%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9198% after dipping by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Thursday as investors looked to fresh economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials as they weighed the outlook for interest rates. Investors awaited fresh comments from Federal Reserve policymakers as uncertainty around when and how often interest rates will be cut this year persisted. A series of further Fed officials are due to make remarks on Thursday and Friday, which investors will be scanning for fresh hints about the path ahead for monetary policy.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed
The firm began coverage of this corner of the ETF space on Monday. An ETF play Woodard's team began coverage of one CLO fund: the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) . "Among covered ETFs with higher credit quality, it has the highest yield," Woodard said. There is also BlackRock's AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) , an actively managed offering with an expense ratio of 0.20% and a 30-day SEC yield of 6.59%. Investors digging into the CLO ETF space shouldn't just focus on yield, of course.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, Jerome Powell, CLOs, Janus Henderson, JAAA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, AAA, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, SEC, AA, AAA CLO, CLOs, BBB
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